Aaron Morrissey over at DCist pulled the numbers on D.C. homicides by each mayor’s administration to see if there was any truth to that assumption that homicides have significantly declined under the leadership of Adrian Fenty.
His conclusion? Yes and no.
As you can see from the charts above which are based on 2010 projections*, Fenty will have presided over a little over a 28 percent decrease in the number of homicides that occurred during his first year in office, 2007. This is a sizable figure, and certainly something for Fenty to brag about. But it is hardly without peer. In fact, Anthony Williams, who held office directly before Fenty, presided over a 31 percent decrease in his second term. Even Marion Barry — who, in his third term as mayor, saw the number of homicides in the city more than double — presided over a just short of 28 percent decrease during his fourth term, between 1995 and 1998. Walter Washington and Sharon Pratt Kelly also achieved double-digit percentage decreases in the number of homicides when they were mayor.
Examining the data another way, Fenty actually oversaw a slight uptick in homicides in his first two years in office (2007 and 2008). This is actually behind what others were able to do — including Williams, whose second term saw four consecutive years of decreases in homicides.
So is Mayor Fenty’s reputation for cutting homicide — especially the fact that the city’s murder rate is projected to be the lowest since the mid ‘60s — something to be proud of? Sure. But is Fenty’s performance in this admittedly narrow metric unprecedented? Not really.
Morrissey has good data, a good graph and good analysis in his post. Head over to DCist to take a look.
